The world will need greatly increased energy supply in the next 20 years, especially cleanly-generated electricity. Failure to accomplish it, will cause massive city and even statewide blackouts. Electricity demand is increasing twice as fast as overall energy use and is likely to rise by more than two-thirds between 2011 to 2035. From 2000 to 2010, total world primary energy demand grew by 26 percent. With the United Nations predicting world population growth from 6.7 billion in 2011 to 8.7 billion by 2035, demand for energy must increase substantially over that period.
On, July 30th, 2012 in India, a blackout affected over 300 million people and was briefly the largest power outage in history, counting number of people affected. The power required today to satisfy all end uses worldwide is about 12.5 trillion watts (TW). Energy consumption is reportedly higher in countries where less than 5 percent of the population lives below the poverty line than it is in countries where most people live in poverty – four times higher.
Americans make up less than 5 percent of the world’s population yet consume 26 percent of the world’s energy. Collectively, developing countries use 30 percent of the world’s energy, but with projected population and economic growth in those markets, energy demands are expected to rise 95 percent. Cumulative investment needed to meet global power demand from 2014-2035 is $16.4 trillion, or $740 billion per year.
Existing infrastructure is not only insufficient but outdated and unable to produce enough energy to satisfy the global demand. Developing countries represent a potential investment market since their demand for electricity is projected to grow 95% within the next 30 years. At the regional level, cumulative investment needs are largest in China ($3.6 trillion), European Union ($2.2 trillion), United States (2.1 trillion), India (1.6 trillion) and Southeast Asia ($1.0 trillion). By 2015, $26.1 billion will be invested in electricity for generation, as well as transmission and distribution, a rise of 18 percent above the $17.3 billion projected to be invested region-wide in 2010.
Global Use by Geography
The International Energy Agency has estimated that 26.3 trillion USD will need to be invested worldwide in the power supply infrastructure to meet an expected 45 percent increase in energy demand between now and 2030. This is an investment that needs to be carried through in the wake of the financial crisis.
Africa
The overall costs for the power sector between 2005 and 2015 in Sub-Saharan Africa are a staggering $41 billion a year—$27 billion for investment and $14 billion for operations and maintenance.
Asia
According to the Asian Development Bank, a total of 4.1 trillion dollars need to be invested between 2010-2020 for energy infrastructure.
Europe
In the next ten years, around Euro 200 billion (bn) are needed for the construction of gas pipelines and electricity grids.
North America
In 2010, the US was spending $14.498 trillion per year on electricity. Canadian homes, offices and factories are large users of electricity, or hydro, as it is often called in many regions of Canada. In 2007, Canadian per capita power consumption was among the highest in the world, with an average of 16,995 kWh per annum.
South America
The World Bank expects Latin America’s power consumption to more than double between 2010 and 2030, and estimates that $430 billion of investment will be needed to meet that demand. An even more intimidating perspective comes from a recent World Energy Council report, which concluded that between now and 2050, “even in the best case, the growth of energy supply in [Latin America] will still be insufficient to meet the rising energy demand associated with economic growth.”
There are many countries however that are experiencing difficulties in acquisition of sustainable power supply and infrastructure, some of them include but are not limited to:
- India
- Nigeria
- Ethiopia
- Bangladesh
- DR Congo
- Indonesia
What’s Next?
The future global economy is likely to consume even more energy, especially with the rising energy demand of developing countries such as China and India. At the same time, the tremendous risk of climate change associated with the use of fossil fuels makes supplying this energy increasingly difficult.
We rely on coal, oil and gas (the fossil fuels) for over 80 percent of our current energy needs – a situation which shows little sign of changing over the medium-term without drastic policy changes. On top of this, energy demand is expected to grow by almost half over the next two decades. Understandably this is causing some fear that our energy resources are starting to run out, with devastating consequences for the global economy and global quality of life.
The potential for crisis if we run out of energy is very real, but there is still time before that occurs. In the past two decades proven gas reserves have increased by 70 percent and proven oil reserves by 40 percent. At expected rates of demand growth, we have enough oil for thirty years’ supply.
Key Problems and Impasses to Power Problems
- Worldwide 1.3 billion people – a population equivalent to that of the entire Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) – continue to live without access to electricity.
- This is equivalent to 18 percentof the global population and 22 percent of those living in developing countries.
- Nearly 97 percent of those without access to electricity live in sub-Saharan Africa and developing Asia.
- The latest estimate for sub-Saharan Africa has been revised up by 22 million, illustrating how rapid population growth can continue to outpace the rate of electrification in many countries and conceal the progress that has been made.
- Until today there is no plan, strategy or treaty capable to respond to the global demand for energy.
World Energy Consumption from 1990 to projections to 2040
Much of the global increase in energy demand occurs among the developing non-OECD nations, where strong economic growth and expanding populations lead to an increase in energy use. Non-OECD demand for energy is predicted to rise by 71 percent between 2012 to 2040. In contrast, in the more mature energy-consuming and slower-growing OECD economies, total energy use is projected to rises by only 18 percent from 2012 to 2040 (Figure 1-2).
Partners in Consumption Efforts
There are several agencies and organizations that are dedicated to the efforts of finding clean, sustainable, safe, and affordable means to accessing energy. Their work and efforts help improve energy legislation, regulations, and build a network to help facilitate research, evaluations and assessments. Some of those organizations are, but not limited to:
- International Energy Agency
- World Energy Council
- International Nuclear Energy Associations
- United Nations
- World Bank
Conclusions and Projections
As the climate around energy consumptions changes and the need for more energy arises, plans and strategies to find ways to build sustainable energy programming is on the rise. Projections by source and by region are displayed in figures below:
References
International Energy Outlook 2016
https://www.eia.gov/forecasts/ieo/world.cfm
Proposal – The Energy Crisis and Climate Change
3 big challenges for Latin America’s electricity sector; 3 big strategies for a successful future
